Updated posts August 2026
ADNOC’s Fossil Fuel Investment Plans Draw Scrutiny Ahead of COP28
The United Arab Emirates oil giant, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), led by COP28 president Sultan al-Jaber, is raising eyebrows for planning to invest over $1 billion each month in fossil fuels throughout this decade. This revelation comes from a recent analysis by Global Witness, an international nongovernmental organization.
What’s striking is that this enormous commitment to fossil fuels sharply contradicts ADNOC’s earlier pledge to achieve net zero emissions by 2045. ADNOC disputes the findings, however, claiming the analysis is based on flawed assumptions.
This news surfaces just ahead of the COP28 climate summit, set to take place in Dubai from November 30th to December 12th, 2023, an event poised to be a pivotal moment in the global fight against climate change.
A President With Dual Roles Under Scrutiny
Sultan al-Jaber, who holds dual roles as ADNOC’s CEO and COP28 conference president, has faced criticism from various quarters, including civil society groups and lawmakers in the US and EU. Nevertheless, some government ministers have defended his ability to hold both responsibilities simultaneously.
Global Witness’s analysis, shared exclusively with ImpactWealth.Org, indicates that ADNOC is planning to spend an average of $1.14 billion per month on oil and gas production alone through 2030. Notably, this same period aligns with the United Nations’ goal of achieving a 45 percent reduction in global emissions by 2030 in order to prevent a climate catastrophe.
The data suggests ADNOC’s investment in fossil fuels will outpace its spending on low carbon solutions by nearly seven times through 2030. By 2050, ADNOC is projected to pour $387 billion into oil and gas, the primary drivers of the climate crisis.
ADNOC’s Response
In response to Global Witness’s findings, an ADNOC spokesperson emailed ImpactWealth.org, stating, “The analysis and assumptions regarding ADNOC’s capital expenditure program beyond the company’s current five-year business plan (2023 to 2027) are speculative and therefore incorrect.”
Earlier this year, ADNOC announced a commitment to allocate $15 billion toward low carbon investments by 2030, spanning clean energy, carbon capture and storage, and electrification projects.
How the Numbers Were Calculated
Global Witness based its projections on an analysis of ADNOC’s anticipated capital expenditures, exploratory spending, and operational expenses from 2023 to 2050, drawing on data from Rystad Energy’s UCube database. While not publicly accessible, Rystad Energy’s data is widely used and accepted by major oil and gas firms as well as international organizations.
Patrick Galey, a senior investigator at Global Witness, criticized fossil fuel companies for publicly touting green initiatives while continuing to invest heavily in polluting oil and gas production. “He is a fossil fuel boss, plain and simple, saying one thing while his company does the other,” Galey said.
Global Witness, established thirty years ago, works to curb the oil and gas industry’s contribution to global warming and support a responsible energy transition, among other goals. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which oversees the COP28 leader conferences, has not yet commented on Global Witness’s analysis.
Al-Jaber’s Broader Energy Background
Sultan al-Jaber previously served as CEO of Masdar, an Abu Dhabi based renewable energy company that has invested more than $30 billion in renewable energy projects worldwide. Al-Jaber has emphasized that limiting global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius remains a top priority for the COP28 Leader summit.
The Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global temperature increases to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, identifies 1.5 degrees Celsius as a critical threshold for preventing severe climate impacts. The International Energy Agency has asserted that further oil, gas, or coal development is fundamentally incompatible with that 1.5 degree goal.
In response to Impact Wealth’s questions, an ADNOC spokesperson noted that global energy demand continues rising due to population growth, emphasizing the ongoing need for oil and gas even within energy transition scenarios. ADNOC pledged to reduce emissions and achieve near zero methane emissions by 2030, while simultaneously increasing investment in renewables and zero carbon energy solutions.
A Pattern Seen Across the Industry
What makes ADNOC’s case particularly notable is how closely it mirrors a broader industry pattern already documented elsewhere. A separate report from Global Witness and Oil Change International last year revealed that twenty of the world’s largest oil and gas companies were projected to spend a combined $932 billion on new fossil fuel projects by the end of the decade, with Russian state owned company Gazprom, ExxonMobil, and Chevron among the top spenders. That consistency across major producers suggests the tension between stated climate commitments and actual capital allocation extends well beyond any single company or leader, raising broader questions about how the industry as a whole squares continued fossil fuel expansion with global emissions targets.
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