U.S. Home Sales Slump to 16-Year Low in March, Raising Concerns for Spring Housing Market

In a worrying start to the spring housing season, U.S. home sales dipped to their lowest March level since 2009, a period marked by the aftermath of the Great Recession. With buyers and sellers holding back amid persistently high mortgage rates and mounting economic uncertainty, the housing market appears to be caught in a slowdown.

According to the latest report by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the number of previously owned homes sold in March 2025 dropped 5.9% compared to February, down to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units. That figure also marks a 2.4% year-over-year decline.

Regional Breakdown: The West Leads the Slump

Home sales decreased in every region of the country month-over-month, with the steepest drop recorded in the West — the most expensive housing market region — where sales plunged over 9%. Interestingly, the West was also the only region to post a slight annual gain, credited largely to robust demand in the Rocky Mountain states fueled by strong job growth.

Why the Decline?

These figures are based on closed sales, meaning the majority of the contracts were likely signed in January or February — when mortgage rates were hovering above 7%. Rates didn’t consistently dip below the 7% threshold until February 20, as reported by Mortgage News Daily.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, noted: “High mortgage rates continue to dampen affordability, which in turn keeps both buyers and sellers on the sidelines. We are witnessing historically low housing mobility, which has significant implications for overall economic mobility in the U.S.”

Inventory on the Rise — But It’s Not Enough

Surprisingly, inventory levels saw a sizable increase. The number of homes for sale at the end of March rose to 1.33 million units, up nearly 20% from a year earlier. This brings the market to a four-month supply at the current sales pace — still short of the six-month supply that defines a balanced market.

Inventory Data	March 2024	March 2025	Change (%)
Total Listings	1.11 million	1.33 million	+19.8%
Months of Supply	3.2 months	4 months	+25%

Home Prices Hold Steady, But Growth Slows

Despite the cooling market, prices haven’t dropped significantly. The median price for an existing home in March 2025 was $403,700 — a record high for March, though the year-over-year increase was only 2.7%. That’s the slowest annual gain since August 2024 and part of a trend that’s been moderating since late last year.

Real Estate Wealth vs. Market Volatility

Yun added another perspective, highlighting that real estate remains a vital pillar of household wealth, especially when compared to volatile stocks and bonds. The total value of residential real estate in the U.S. stands at a staggering $52 trillion, according to Federal Reserve data. A mere 1% increase in home prices adds over $500 billion to Americans’ collective balance sheets.

Buyer Demographics and Investor Activity

The makeup of the housing market also remains consistent in some areas:

• First-time buyers made up 32% of all sales in March — unchanged from last year, though below the historical average of 40%.
• All-cash sales declined slightly to 26%, down from 28% a year ago.
• Investor purchases stayed flat at 15% of total transactions.

Canceled Contracts and Consumer Jitters

Adding to the complexity, NAR is already noting a spike in canceled contracts as of March. With the stock market experiencing turbulence in April and inflation fears rising, experts suggest this trend might worsen.

Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, commented, “March numbers are bad, but they’re likely to get worse. Rising tariffs may increase the cost of home furnishings, while growing anxiety over job stability and inflation could push even more buyers to delay or abandon their plans.”

Final Thoughts

The sluggish performance of the U.S. housing market in March 2025 paints a sobering picture of the challenges facing buyers, sellers, and policymakers alike. With affordability stretched, inventory rising but still not sufficient, and economic headwinds building, the spring season may fall far short of expectations unless there’s a notable shift in mortgage rates or consumer confidence.

For those considering buying or selling in this environment, staying informed and working closely with experienced real estate professionals is more critical than ever.

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Also read: The Housing Market in 2025: A Growing Supply Problem